Coffee Finance (www.coffinance.com) has learnt that based on current market reports and data aggregates, global coffee production is expected to reach 176.2 million bags (60kg per bag) in 2024/25. Among them, Arabica coffee production of 99.9 million bags, accounting for 56.7% of the total production, compared with the previous year's production increased by 4.2%. Robusta coffee production 76.4 million bags, accounting for 43.3 per cent of total production, compared with the previous year, the same 4% increase in production. Among specific coffee-producing countries, Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia remain the world's three largest coffee producers, accounting for an estimated 54.5 per cent of global coffee production in 2024/25. It is worth noting that despite the small increase in global coffee production, there is still a possibility that demand will outstrip supply, especially as Brazil's coffee production forecasts continue to be revised downwards and actual production is below production potential. Previously, we have released individual coffee-producing countries and regions of the new season production forecasts, as follows:
For most coffee-producing countries in the northern hemisphere, the 2024/25 season begins in October, including Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua in Central and South America; Ethiopia, Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire in East and West Africa; and Vietnam and India in South-East Asia.
Forecasts for production performance in the new season are mixed, as some of the countries mentioned above experienced widespread El Niño weather during the early growing season. In Colombia, there has been a positive recovery and coffee production is expected to reach 12.8 million bags in the new season. Coffee consumption in the country will also increase by 1.6 per cent to 2.3 million bags. In Mexico and Central America, total production is expected to reach 16.5 million bags, an increase of 6.4 per cent compared to the previous year's ten-year low. Small increases in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica are expected to boost the recovery, but are still 12.50 per cent below the region's production highs of the past few years. In Uganda, production is expected to remain stable at around 15 million bags for the new season, although higher prices for Robusta coffee are spurring more exports from the country. In Ethiopia, 7.5 million bags of coffee are expected to be produced in the new season, but about half of the production is consumed in the country and the remaining half is exported. In Vietnam, the market focus remains on weather